First, a repeat of my post from the day after election day, 2016.
- I am deeply disappointed in the election results, and ashamed of my country that we even had a close election about white nationalism.
- It’s not the end of the world.
- I’ve always said that even if the Democrats were to win the Senate and the White House, our government would continue to be pathetic and dysfunctional, because gerrymandering guaranteed the Republicans the House. Nothing good could happen.
- As long as Republicans didn’t control all three, nothing bad could happen, either.
- Alas, that’s what happened. We’re in for Republican plans. What can we expect?
- Taxes will drop for the rich. The deficit will balloon.
- Obamacare will be repealed. Tens of millions will lose insurance coverage. Obamacare did suck, but it was better than nothing.
- Roe v Wade will be repealed. Dozens of states will outlaw abortion. Americans will not suddenly begin to abstain from sex, but one can hope we’ll get better about birth control.
- Voter suppression of poor, young, and minority voters will increase.
- We will build a wall, or most of one. It will be expensive and ineffective.
- A multidecade conservative majority in the Supreme Court.
- We’ll bail on our environmental treaties.
- I don’t think we’ll bail on NAFTA or other trade agreements, despite Trump’s threats.
- I don’t think we’ll bail on NATO, despite Trump’s threats.
- I’ve been trying to look for a silver lining. Here it is: Republicans have been actively working to make the country worse since 2010, since anything good that happened might be credited to Obama. They no longer have that incentive. They will try to make the country better. Even if their ideas are bad, that’s got to be better than working to make the country worse, right?
- Right?
Trump failed to repeal Obamacare (though he did his best and did make it way worse), and the “Wall,” while expensive and ineffective, was not built. The Supreme Court went even worse than I feared. He did replace NAFTA, but not with anything radical. NATO held (barely), environmental treaties were thrown out.
The deficit went from $585 billion in 2016 to $3.1 trillion (!) in 2020 under Trump — but that includes a lot of Covid spending. Without Covid, it probably would have been more like $1.1 trillion. Fiscal responsibility! Does anybody but me remember in 2000 when we ran a surplus of $236 billion and it looked like the debt would be paid off before 2010? Instead, we gave hundreds of billions to the rich and blew perhaps $2.4 trillion on the Iraq War. Nice job, W!
I never imagined the level he would use the office of the president to enrich himself, the laughingstock he would make of himself and our nation to the rest of the world, the crimes he would commit in office, or his audacity to attempt a violent coup when he lost the election.
Still, on the whole, I’d say pretty good predictions. High five, Joe of 2016!